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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 38

Indianapolis Colts 13 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 7-M.Gay 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.10 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.10 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 47, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model