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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Jets 14 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to IND 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.11 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model