Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 16 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(4:43) 8-R.Sanchez punts 43 yards to NYJ 47, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson. PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 47.

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.85 EP
70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model