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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 89

Indianapolis Colts 16 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to NYJ 31, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 41 for 10 yards (50-S.Olubi; 16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -3.36 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.92 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 89, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model