Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 69

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(8:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to IND 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 1-J.Downs ran ob at IND 23 for 8 yards (32-I.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.41 EP
63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model