Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 77

New York Jets 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

(3:48) 6-T.Morstead punts 59 yards to IND 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 1-J.Downs pushed ob at IND 34 for 16 yards (55-C.Surratt).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.79 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model