Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 17 at the 77

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 14

(11:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to DET 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 36 for 15 yards (53-A.Pittman).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.69 EP
73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model