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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 14.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

JAX
20.5%
DET
79.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.177 vs Mac Jones (JAX) -0.162 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: +0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • DET defense: -0.104 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

JAX 19
–
DET 29
Projected margin: DET by 10 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

JAX

Yasir Abdullah LB Out Hamstring
Tank Bigsby RB Out Ankle
Trevor Lawrence QB Out Left Shoulder
Keilan Robinson RB Questionable Toe
Ezra Cleveland G Questionable Ankle
Maason Smith DT Questionable Ankle

DET

Sam LaPorta TE Out Shoulder
Ifeatu Melifonwu S Out Ankle
Brodric Martin DT Out Knee
Emmanuel Moseley CB Out Pectoral
Ben Niemann LB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 6
–
DET 52

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:39 FG JAX (9:39) 39-C.Little 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – DET 0
  • Q1 05:02 TD DET (5:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DET 6
  • Q2 12:32 TD DET (12:32) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DET 13
  • Q2 06:44 TD DET (6:44) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DET 20
  • Q2 02:53 TD DET (2:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – DET 27
  • Q2 00:03 FG JAX (:03) 39-C.Little 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. PENALTY on DET-54-A.McNeill, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. JAX 6 – DET 28
  • Q3 13:05 TD DET (13:05) 16-J.Goff pass deep middle to 9-J.Williams for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DET 34
  • Q3 04:21 TD DET (4:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-B.Wright for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DET 41
  • Q4 13:27 TD DET (13:27) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – DET 48
  • Q4 07:53 FG DET (7:53) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. JAX 6 – DET 52

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 61%

    (9:39) 39-C.Little 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:00) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to DET 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 7 for no gain (20-D.Thomas).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74%

    (14:56) 16-J.Goff up the middle to DET 49 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 17 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to DET 21, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 36 for 15 yards (53-A.Pittman).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to DET 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:24) 10-M.Jones up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (54-A.McNeill).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:12) 9-L.Cooke punts 52 yards to DET 17, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 96%

    (5:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-T.Patrick to JAX 5 for 9 yards (3-T.Campbell).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 31
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 80%

    (9:57) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones sacked at DET 40 for -9 yards (sack split by 99-Z.Smith and 46-J.Campbell).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 6 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 70%

    (7:53) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to DET 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 26 for 15 yards (48-C.Muma).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 2 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) 2-H.Hooker up the middle to JAX 20 for 3 yards (93-T.Lacy).