Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 59

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 21

(5:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 43 yards to DET 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.61 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model