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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 61

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 10-M.Jones up the middle to JAX 41 for 2 yards (54-A.McNeill).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.59 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model