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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 6 – Detroit Lions 52

What Actually Happened

(6:58) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to DET 11, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond pushed ob at DET 26 for 15 yards (48-C.Muma).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.96 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model