4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 54

Detroit Lions 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 16-J.Goff up the middle to DET 49 for 3 yards (23-F.Oluokun).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model