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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Conner at KC 31. 27-C.Conner to BUF 40 for 29 yards (74-R.Van Demark).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.94 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model