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9-1 HC Andy Reid
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Buffalo Bills

9-2 HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 16:25 ET New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 46.5

Win Probability

KC
31.6%
BUF
68.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: +0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.204 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.130 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 23 16–30
–
BUF 27 20–34
Projected margin: BUF by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

KC

Charles Omenihu DE Out Knee
Isiah Pacheco RB Out Ankle

BUF

Keon Coleman WR Out Wrist
Dalton Kincaid TE Out Knee
Matt Milano LB Out Biceps
Spencer Brown T Questionable Ankle
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 21
–
BUF 30

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:04 TD BUF (10:04) 4-J.Cook right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – BUF 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD KC (15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in flat at BUF 10. KC 6 – BUF 6
  • Q2 10:13 TD BUF (10:13) 4-J.Cook up the middle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – BUF 12
  • Q2 02:53 TD KC (2:53) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 83-N.Gray for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 13 – BUF 13
  • Q2 00:05 FG BUF (:05) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin. KC 14 – BUF 16
  • Q4 12:57 TD BUF (12:57) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 1-C.Samuel for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [27-C.Conner]. Caught in flat at KC 10. KC 14 – BUF 22
  • Q4 07:59 TD KC (7:59) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 83-N.Gray for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN [50-G.Rousseau]. Caught in rear corner of end zone. KC 20 – BUF 23
  • Q4 02:27 TD BUF (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game. KC 21 – BUF 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to BUF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 35 for 10 yards (39-K.Taylor; 27-C.Conner). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 35.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 41%

    (5:28) 8-S.Martin punts 35 yards to KC 12, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 19 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:19) 14-M.Araiza punts 45 yards to BUF 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington to KC 41 for 25 yards (88-P.Hendershot).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 73%

    (7:38) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right intended for 88-D.Knox INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Conner at KC 31. 27-C.Conner to BUF 40 for 29 yards (74-R.Van Demark).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 11 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:05) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:13) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to KC 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to BUF 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 33 for 15 yards (34-S.Perine; 2-J.Williams).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 34%

    (8:04) 8-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 6, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-M.Hardman to KC 14 for 8 yards (39-C.Lewis).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:02) 14-M.Araiza punts 44 yards to BUF 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington ran ob at BUF 17 for 6 yards.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 BUF 4th & 2 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 86%

    (2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 13 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 43-T.Bernard [42-Do.Williams] at BUF 29. 43-T.Bernard to BUF 29 for no gain (87-T.Kelce).

    See the full breakdown →