Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(14:13) 8-S.Martin punts 47 yards to KC 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.32 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 67, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model