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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 76

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Buffalo Bills 16

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 14-M.Araiza punts 58 yards to BUF 18, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 33 for 15 yards (34-S.Perine; 2-J.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 76, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 34, worth -1.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model