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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 26

Buffalo Bills 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 21

What Actually Happened

(2:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: BUF-73-D.Dawkins has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.54 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model