Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 71

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 6

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 14-M.Araiza punts 46 yards to BUF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester. 29-B.Codrington to BUF 35 for 10 yards (39-K.Taylor; 27-C.Conner). PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.68 EP
65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 71, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model