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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 39

Los Angeles Rams 14 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:38) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NE 33 for 6 yards (23-K.Dugger; 95-D.Ekuale).

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.63 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 48, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model