Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NE offense: -0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- Drake Maye (NE): -0.132 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- LA offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- NE defense: +0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 11
LA
NE
Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 05:08 TD NE (5:08) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 84-K.Bourne for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 0 – NE 6
- Q2 07:22 TD LA (7:22) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – NE 7
- Q2 05:49 TD LA (5:49) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 17-P.Nacua for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA-17-P.Nacua was injured during the play. LA 13 – NE 7
- Q2 01:55 FG NE (1:55) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LA 14 – NE 10
- Q3 14:19 TD LA (14:19) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 10-C.Kupp for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 20 – NE 10
- Q3 07:05 FG NE (7:05) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LA 21 – NE 13
- Q3 03:35 TD LA (3:35) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 86-C.Parkinson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – NE 13
- Q4 12:49 TD NE (12:49) 59-V.Lowe reported in as eligible. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 59-V.Lowe for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 28 – NE 19
- Q4 04:57 FG NE (4:57) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer. LA 28 – NE 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 13 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 44%
(11:41) 17-B.Baringer punts 32 yards to LA 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 19-X.Smith.
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Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 43Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EPp(convert) 40% p(FG) 46%
(8:46) 42-E.Evans punts 20 yards to NE 23, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds.
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Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 31%
(3:00) 42-E.Evans punts 38 yards to NE 11, Center-47-A.Ward, downed by LA-56-C.Rozeboom.
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Q2 NE 4th & 18 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 49%
(12:30) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
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Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 45% p(FG) 96%
(1:55) 13-J.Slye 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 39Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 57%
(:38) (No Huddle) 23-K.Williams up the middle to NE 33 for 6 yards (23-K.Dugger; 95-D.Ekuale).
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Q3 NE 4th & 7 at the 7Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%
(7:05) 13-J.Slye 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(11:10) 42-E.Evans punts 50 yards to NE 11, Center-47-A.Ward, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.
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Q4 NE 4th & 5 at the 23 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 88%
(4:57) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.
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Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 35 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EPp(convert) 39% p(FG) 67%
(2:22) 42-E.Evans punts 30 yards to NE 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-48-O.Speights, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 5.