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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 23

New England Patriots 19 – Los Angeles Rams 28

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 13-J.Slye 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.59 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model