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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 35

Los Angeles Rams 28 – New England Patriots 22

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 42-E.Evans punts 30 yards to NE 5, Center-47-A.Ward, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-48-O.Speights, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at NE 5.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.30 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.11 EP