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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 22

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 96-J.Romo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.88 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model