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Minnesota Vikings

HC Kevin O'Connell
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Tennessee Titans

HC Brian Callahan
Sunday 2024-11-17 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

MIN
53.3%
TEN
46.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.128 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.028 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 23
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: MIN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

MIN

Gabriel Murphy DE Out Knee

TEN

L'Jarius Sneed CB Out Quadricep
Leroy Watson T Out Back
Tyler Boyd WR Questionable Back
Justin Hardee CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 23
–
TEN 13

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:42 FG TEN (4:42) 6-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. MIN 0 – TEN 3
  • Q1 03:25 TD MIN (3:25) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – TEN 3
  • Q2 07:43 TD MIN (7:43) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – TEN 3
  • Q2 01:45 FG MIN (1:45) 96-J.Romo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright. MIN 16 – TEN 3
  • Q3 07:12 TD TEN (7:12) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass deep right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 98 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 16 – TEN 9
  • Q3 03:19 TD MIN (3:19) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 27-C.Akers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 22 – TEN 10
  • Q4 14:12 FG TEN (14:12) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. MIN 23 – TEN 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 16 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 32 yards to MIN 39, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (4:42) 6-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 12 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:54) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 50 yards to MIN 11, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 4-B.Powell.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 51 yards to MIN 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-B.Powell pushed ob at MIN 23 for 10 yards (52-J.Williams). PENALTY on TEN-52-J.Williams, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at MIN 23.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 90%

    (1:45) 96-J.Romo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Holder-17-R.Wright.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:22) 17-R.Wright punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-B.Powell to MIN 34 for 7 yards (80-B.Oliver).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 32%

    (8:38) 17-R.Wright punts 47 yards to TEN 2, Center-47-J.McQuaide, downed by MIN-11-T.Sherfield.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 86%

    (14:12) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (10:48) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 19-J.Jackson ran ob at TEN 26 for 20 yards (32-T.Chandler). PENALTY on MIN-32-T.Chandler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 26.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 48%

    (8:36) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at MIN 49 for -6 yards (91-P.Jones).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 18 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 50%

    (5:17) 17-R.Wright punts 29 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 19-J.Jackson pushed ob at TEN 19 for 6 yards (98-B.Richter).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 48 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 35%

    (2:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 83-T.Boyd [91-P.Jones].

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:05) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to TEN 16, Center-47-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.