Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Tennessee Titans 3

(13:22) 17-R.Wright punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model