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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 32 yards to MIN 39, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.71 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 71, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 29, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model