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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 3 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 46 yards to MIN 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 4-B.Powell to MIN 34 for 7 yards (80-B.Oliver).

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.49 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 31, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model