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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 12 at the 25

Tennessee Titans 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(14:12) 6-N.Folk 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.07 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model