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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 46

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 17-R.Wright punts 40 yards to TEN 6, Center-47-J.McQuaide. 19-J.Jackson ran ob at TEN 26 for 20 yards (32-T.Chandler). PENALTY on MIN-32-T.Chandler, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 26.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.56 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model