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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Tennessee Titans
4th & 4 at the 43
Tennessee Titans 13 – Minnesota Vikings 23
What Actually Happened
(8:36) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis sacked at MIN 49 for -6 yards (91-P.Jones).
The Three Options
GO
+0.30 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 43, worth -2.01 EP
KICK
-0.58 EP
- 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 52% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
- Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
