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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 48

Tennessee Titans 13 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(2:29) (Shotgun) 8-W.Levis pass incomplete deep left to 83-T.Boyd [91-P.Jones].

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.33 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.65 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model