4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 77

Detroit Lions 14 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(:20) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +0.61 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 77, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 34, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model