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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Shane Steichen
Sunday 2024-11-24 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -7.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

DET
69.6%
IND
30.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.215 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Joe Flacco (IND) -0.071 vs Jared Goff (DET) +0.236 EPA/dropback
  • DET defense: -0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • IND offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 26
–
IND 18
Projected margin: DET by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

DET

Ennis Rakestraw CB Out Hamstring
Terrion Arnold CB Questionable Groin
Emmanuel Moseley CB Questionable Pectoral

IND

Bernhard Raimann T Out Knee
Tyquan Lewis DE Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 24
–
IND 6

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:56 FG IND (8:56) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DET 0 – IND 3
  • Q2 12:11 TD DET (12:11) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – IND 3
  • Q2 08:19 FG IND (8:19) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. DET 7 – IND 6
  • Q2 03:40 TD DET (3:40) (Shotgun) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – IND 6
  • Q3 02:24 TD DET (2:24) (Shotgun) 26-J.Gibbs right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DET-26-J.Gibbs, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. DET 20 – IND 6
  • Q4 06:25 FG DET (6:25) 39-J.Bates 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 24 – IND 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 7 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (8:56) 7-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 46%

    (4:48) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to IND 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 1-J.Downs to IND 10 for -2 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 17 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:33) 8-R.Sanchez punts 62 yards to DET 24, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-K.Raymond to DET 40 for 16 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (8:19) 7-M.Gay 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 36%

    (1:52) 8-R.Sanchez punts 40 yards to DET 10, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 11 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:20) 3-J.Fox punts 58 yards to IND 19, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 96%

    (9:57) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to IND 16 for -2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo, 41-G.Stuard).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:53) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to DET 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (31-T.Goodson). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 18 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to DET 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:34) 3-J.Fox punts 60 yards to IND 9, Center-49-H.Hatten. 1-J.Downs to IND 15 for 6 yards (46-J.Campbell). Penalty on IND-48-R.Harrison, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 15 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to DET 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at DET 45 for 7 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 29%

    (11:29) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to IND 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:18) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to DET 33, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-A.St. Brown to DET 41 for 8 yards (59-C.McGrone). PENALTY on IND-83-K.Granson, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 41.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 38
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 66%

    (6:25) 39-J.Bates 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 26 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 87%

    (4:48) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to DET 24 for 2 yards (21-A.Robertson).