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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 14

Detroit Lions 14 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to IND 16 for -2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo, 41-G.Stuard).

The Three Options

GO +3.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model