Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(7:53) 8-R.Sanchez punts 57 yards to DET 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 11-K.Raymond to DET 21 for 14 yards (31-T.Goodson). DET-11-K.Raymond was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.29 EP
59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model