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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 61

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(:19) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to DET 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 14-A.St. Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.03 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 61, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 20, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model