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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 90

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 8-R.Sanchez punts 52 yards to DET 38, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 14-A.St. Brown ran ob at DET 45 for 7 yards (46-L.Rhodes).

The Three Options

GO -3.40 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 90, worth -5.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 47, worth -2.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model