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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 53

Detroit Lions 21 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(11:29) 3-J.Fox punts 40 yards to IND 13, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 1-J.Downs.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.85 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 53, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP