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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 38

Detroit Lions 21 – Indianapolis Colts 6

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 39-J.Bates 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.67 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP