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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(4:48) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to DET 24 for 2 yards (21-A.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.39 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.37 EP