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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 46

Detroit Lions 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to IND 12, Center-49-H.Hatten. 1-J.Downs to IND 10 for -2 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model