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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(10:58) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.86 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.14 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.44 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model