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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Thursday 2024-11-21 · 20:15 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -3.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

PIT
57.6%
CLE
42.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (PIT): -0.010 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
CLE 19
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

PIT

Alex Highsmith LB Out Ankle
Cory Trice CB Out Hamstring

CLE

Geoff Swaim TE Out Concussion
Jedrick Wills T Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2024 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 19
–
CLE 24

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:58 FG PIT (10:58) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 3 – CLE 0
  • Q2 04:03 TD CLE (4:03) 59-W.Reid and 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: PIT-6-P.Queen has returned to the game. PIT 3 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:43 FG CLE (:43) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 3 – CLE 10
  • Q3 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman. PIT 6 – CLE 10
  • Q4 12:23 TD CLE (12:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 16
  • Q4 08:00 TD PIT (8:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Warren left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – CLE 18
  • Q4 06:20 TD PIT (6:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-D.Tomlinson]. PIT 19 – CLE 18
  • Q4 01:00 TD CLE (1:00) (Shotgun) 24-N.Chubb up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – CLE 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 51%

    (9:18) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 35%

    (7:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 12 yards to PIT 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Kazee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 57%

    (3:30) (Shotgun) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields right tackle to CLE 40 for -2 yards (9-G.Delpit, 95-M.Garrett).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 22%

    (2:10) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to PIT 11, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-20-P.Strong.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 76%

    (10:58) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 94%

    (5:07) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 24-N.Chubb left guard to PIT 11 for 5 yards (25-D.Elliott). PIT-6-P.Queen was injured during the play.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 94%

    (:43) 7-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:37) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 45 for -1 yards (90-M.Hurst).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (9:17) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 89%

    (4:43) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth ran ob at CLE 13 for 9 yards (12-R.McLeod) [95-M.Garrett].

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 82%

    (15:00) 24-N.Chubb left guard to PIT 23 for 4 yards (91-P.Smith; 99-L.Ogunjobi).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 99%

    (12:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (3:29) 8-C.Waitman punts 15 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston pass short left to 3-J.Jeudy to PIT 33 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter).