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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:37) 30-J.Warren up the middle to PIT 45 for -1 yards (90-M.Hurst).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model