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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.36 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP