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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 27

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 24-N.Chubb left guard to PIT 23 for 4 yards (91-P.Smith; 99-L.Ogunjobi).

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.43 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT +0.53 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model