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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 40

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 9-C.Boswell 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.92 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.29 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP