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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 2 at the 2
Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6
What Actually Happened
(12:23) (Shotgun) 5-J.Winston scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
50% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
- 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 2, worth +1.13 EP
KICK
+2.05 EP
- 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT
+0.31 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
