Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Cleveland Browns 18

(3:29) 8-C.Waitman punts 15 yards to PIT 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.24 EP
48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model