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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 12 yards to PIT 34, Center-50-R.Sunahara, out of bounds. PENALTY on PIT-23-D.Kazee, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.26 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model